The leader for the Detroit Lions at No. 2, other observations coming out of 2022 NFL combine - mlive.com

2022-03-24 11:34:01 By : Mr. Fred Leu

Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes speaks during a press conference at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Tuesday, March 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)AP

INDIANAPOLIS -- It seems like it’s been about a year since I arrived at the NFL Scouting Combine and had lunch with Detroit Lions brass. It was actually only seven days ago, but after talking to a couple hundred prospects, many of the league’s coaches and general managers, eating half the calories in Indianapolis and sneaking in a nap here or there, well, yeah, a lot has happened since we broke bread.

Here’s a look back at some Lions-related observations from a very busy week in Indianapolis.

The great debate for the Detroit Lions is whether they prefer Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux with the second overall pick. Some folks are now starting to wonder whether a quarterback like Malik Willis might be in play too, or perhaps a safety like Kyle Hamilton. Those are two good players who can’t be ruled out, but I just don’t see either happening. Not that highly. Not with top-shelf edge rushers available to a team that wants to build through the trenches, one of whom just screams Dan Campbell type in the evaluation.

That edge rusher: Aidan Hutchinson.

I know some prefer Thibodeaux, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a longer, better athlete who showed up at the combine and was, well, a longer, better athlete. Thibodeaux (4.58 seconds) outran Hutchinson (4.74 seconds), and his 10-yard split (1.59 seconds unofficially) was faster than Hutchinson’s too (1.62 seconds unofficially). Throw in the length thing -- Hutchinson’s arms measured just 32 1/8 inches, the second-shortest among edge rushers at the combine -- and it’s easy to understand why some might prefer to roll the dice on that ceiling.

But here’s betting the Lions don’t. Hutchinson is viewed as not only a scheme fit -- especially as Detroit prepares to install more four-man fronts -- but culture fit too. He’s all about ball, all the time. His motor never stops humming. Which is the same thing that sold them on Penei Sewell last year, so much so they were jumping out of their chairs when the former Oregon star fell to them at No. 7.

Hutchinson also might not be the athlete Thibodeaux is, but he’s still very elite. At 6-foot-7 and 260 pounds, Hutchinson ripped through the 3-cone drill faster than everyone but three defensive backs and two receivers. That’s it. And his 20-yard shuttle was faster than all but two defensive backs and one receiver, none of whom was within 5 inches or 60 pounds of him. Nobody that big was moving more explosively through those drills than Hutchinson.

There’s a great metric called Relative Athletic Score that compares how a player stacks up with everyone else at his position in combine history. Size, speed, strength, all of it. And Hutchinson’s score was 9.86 (on a 10-point scale), which ranked 20th among the 1,389 defensive ends who have rolled through the combine since 1985. That’s the top 1.4%. So, yeah. The arm size is something teams will have to talk through, but otherwise this is an elite athlete with elite tape and, by all accounts, elite intangibles.

I came into the week believing Hutchinson had the edge over Thibodeaux for Detroit, and nothing moved me off that notion over the last few days. Who knows what the Lions will do at No. 2, but to me, Hutchinson has the edge.

If he makes it to No. 2, that is. And given the way he tested in Indy, that is no certainty either.

You couldn’t throw a rock inside the Indianapolis Convention Center without hitting someone willing to tell you just how much Detroit wants a premium receiver. Amon-Ra St. Brown did work as a rookie, but the Lions know he is at his best in the short and intermediate field. Same goes for T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift, for that matter. Throw in all the good stuff happening on the ground and in the trenches, and I think Detroit genuinely believes it’s a piece or two away from something pretty good on that side of the ball.

That piece: An X-receiver who can get downfield.

“It’s the one thing we looked at over the course of the last few weeks in our self-scout (that we were really missing),” new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. “We feel like we attack the middle of the field very well. So the more we can expand both vertically and horizontally outside the numbers, and deep down the field, that’s just going to make the guys on the inside of the field that much more dangerous.”

The good news is there are lots of options in this draft.

Eight of those guys went sub-4.4 in the 40-yard dash, a combine record. And that doesn’t even include Jameson Williams or Drake London, perhaps the two best deep threats in the entire draft, neither of whom worked out in Indianapolis because of injuries. London said he expects to work out at the USC pro day in a couple weeks, and here’s betting he’s high up the Lions’ wish list. Because at 6-foot-5, no one in this draft is better at going up for a 50-50 ball and making a play. And that’s exactly the kind of thing Detroit wants for an offense that often had issues pushing the ball downfield last year, and struggled with its size in the red zone.

“When we get down there (in the red area), the size matchups make a huge difference,” Johnson said. “That was another thing that we brought up, is how many times did we really throw it outside the numbers when we got down there tight? It was probably below league average. That’s something we need to look at and need to continue to explore. Once again, I know (Dan) Campbell and Brad (Holmes), they’ve been going on personnel (discussions) now. When we were at the Senior Bowl, they were already starting on this process, so they’re already ahead of the rest of the coaching staff.

“I know they have a clear vision in mind about how we’re going to improve on offense.”

Given all that, London is my favorite receiver for Detroit because of the length, big-play ability, knack for the 50-50 ball, as well as his prior experience with Amon-Ra St. Brown at USC. Don’t underestimate that experience, and expect Detroit to speak with St. Brown about London. Because that guy has earned this staff’s trust by embodying everything they want culture-wise.

Another big X-receiver to watch is North Dakota State’s Christian Watson, who was the best receiver at the Senior Bowl, then hopped a flight to Indianapolis and blew out the combine. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.36 seconds, which was sixth fastest among receivers, despite this being the fastest group of receivers in combine history. And no one at any position could match his 136 inches in the broad jump.

Here’s the thing: Watson did all that at 6-foot-4 and 208 pounds. Those are incredible numbers for a big guy. I guarantee you there are 32 NFL buildings that are going to be crushing North Dakota State film, trying to understand how a guy like this ends up at a place like that, which hasn’t produced an NFL receiver since 1985. I’m not sure he makes it out of the first round. I’m not sure the Lions would let him.

And then there’s Treylon Burks, the 6-foot-2, 225-pound Arkansas receiver who lined up outside and inside and in the backfield, and even under center for the Hogs. He also returned kicks and punts. Oh, right, and he literally hunts wild hogs with his bare hands. Is that a Dan Campbell type or what?

Having said all that, I walked away from the combine with a crush on one receiver for Detroit: Georgia’s George Pickens.

He’s a 6-foot-3 X-receiver who would be a first-round lock if he kept playing like he did as a true freshman. Problem is he also was suspended for a violation of team rules that year, plus got kicked out of a game against Georgia Tech for fighting, which also forced him to miss the first half of the SEC championship game against LSU. Then last year, he blew out his ACL in the spring and played just 35 snaps.

Yet that was enough for Pickens to deliver two of the best catches in college football, including this 52-yarder in the national title game against Alabama. The guy is just a freak down the field, with a massive catch radius. Plus he delivered this block against Michigan in the national semifinal, which put Dax Hill -- who will be playing on Sundays next season -- on his hind parts.

Then Pickens turned toward the Wolverines’ sideline, and told them to quiet down.

“I’ve always been physical,” Pickens said. “That’s one of the things I can also add to my game besides pass catching and besides going deep. Blocking is for sure one of the things I pride myself on.”

The Lions need a guy to go deep. And based on the kinds of guys they’ve tried to bring in over the last year, they probably would prefer a guy with some attitude too. Guys like Penei Sewell, who just went toe-to-toe with Aaron Donald last season. Guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, who started a fight on the first day of padded practice last year -- and was cheered on by Dan Campbell for it.

I couldn’t help but think about all that while listening to Pickens speak at his pre-combine press conference. That sent me back to the film, which is extraordinary. His ball skills and catch radius are off the charts. The ACL is of course a concern, although based on his performance at the combine -- where he ripped the 40-yard dash in 4.47 seconds -- he proved a lot about his health as well.

The fight from his freshman year will be a red flag for some clubs too, especially since it cost him the first half of the SEC title game. But here’s betting it won’t be a red flag for Dan Campbell.

Don’t forget about free agency, either

It’s an awfully good year to need a receiver. Not only is this draft class deep at that position, but so is the free-agent class, with big names like Davante Adams, Mike Williams and Allen Robinson all eligible to hit the open market in nine days.

I like Williams a lot for the Lions because his length would be a huge asset in the red zone, where they badly need more size. But there were whispers at the combine about Robinson, a Detroit native, and his possible interest in coming home. It would cost a lot to get any of those guys, but then again, the Lions have a lot to spend this year. And they seem far more willing to open the checkbook in Year 2 of the rebuild, now that they’ve trimmed some fat from the roster.

“We were in a position where we had to resort to a lot of those one-year deals (last year), just with the resources that we had available to us,” general manager Brad Holmes said. “We’ll have a little bit more resources available to us this year. … We’re not just searching for one-year deal guys. I’m not saying that we won’t sign a guy that’s on a one-year deal -- that’ll still be in play -- but I guess you can say the universe is a lot more open to us this year.”

The draft will remain the primary avenue through which Holmes rebuilds this team, but based on their needs, how close they believe they are, and the quality of guys that are available at receiver, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Detroit woo Allen Robinson or another top-shelf wideout to Allen Park.

It’s inevitable the Lions will invest in a top-shelf receiver this offseason, either in free agency or the draft, or perhaps even both. Much less is certain about what they’ll do under center. Jared Goff was awful in the first half of last season, but also tremendous down the stretch, and with a depleted roster around him at that. He had the third-highest passer rating in the league during his five healthy games with Dan Campbell calling the plays, and new coordinator Ben Johnson drawing them up.

Where exactly they go from here is unclear. They hold the No. 2 pick, but for the first time since 2014, there might not be a quarterback worth taking that highly. Tough luck.

Kenny Pickett is the No. 1 quarterback on a lot of boards, but his ceiling -- solid NFL starter -- is pretty much what the Lions already have in Goff, with better mobility. So spending a first-round pick on a guy who, if everything goes right, is just another version of what you already have, seems like a waste.

That’s why I’ve been saying for a while that if the Lions draft a quarterback, it will be Liberty’s Malik Willis. Because while his bust potential is so much higher than Pickett’s, his ceiling is higher than any other quarterback in this class too. And he didn’t even have to run at the combine to show why. Just look at this.

An absolute BEAUTY of a throw from @LibertyFootball QB @malikwillis 😮 📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/nBtecvoB2I

Willis not only has the best wheels of any quarterback in this class, but the strongest arm too. It really stood out on the second day of Senior Bowl week, when heavy rains bothered all the other quarterbacks. And then there was Willis, still bombing the football all over Mobile. His top-end velocity that week was stronger than every other quarterback in years.

The arm strength was back on display at the combine, drawing audible oohs and aahs from a crowd that was dominated by scouts, coaches and front-office executives. I don’t know how early he will go, because he is still such a project, but someone will take an early gamble on him because no one else in this draft has that kind of skill set.

Having said all that, I do not expect that team to be the Lions.

I know Detroit loved working with Willis at the Senior Bowl, but I just don’t know if he’s a Dan Campbell type. I don’t know if Detroit wants to center this rebuild on a guy with so many unknowns, especially when, for better or worse, they already really like Jared Goff. And the quarterback class next year is expected to be much better than this year’s.

Not to parse his words too much, but I thought it was revealing when Campbell was asked what he’s looking for in a QB2 -- where David Blough and Tim Boyle are both free agents -- and he didn’t even mention the idea of adding a guy who could push Goff for the starting job.

“I think you’re looking for a guy at that position that can move the offense,” Campbell said. “More than anything, it’s like, ‘Hey, he’s not going to do anything that’s going to hurt this team or hurt your offense and he can function and he’s going to get you into the right play with run checks,’ things of that nature. Knowing that we’re not going to have to put everything on him to win a game. We just need to make sure that this guy can move it. Can move the ball. Can move his offense. I think that’s what you’re looking for, no more no less.”

The Lions have been noncommital about the future of Trey Flowers in Detroit, which is probably not a very good sign for Trey Flowers’ future in Detroit. Because while that guy clearly hasn’t been worth $90 million, he’s a tremendous team leader who is well-respected throughout the organization. If he was in Detroit’s plans, Detroit would just say so rather than leave a guy like that twisting in the wind through press conference after press conference.

Yet last week, they did it again.

“We’ll keep open dialogue with Trey and his camp,” Holmes said. “I think that’s the best thing to do in all these situations, whether it’s players on expiring contracts, or whatever contract status they have. You just keep the dialogue open.”

What is there to discuss with him?

“We just keep open dialogue with all our players, with whatever situation is going on,” Holmes said. “That’s what we do, and just kind of keep it open and honest.”

That could be a foreboding sign for Flowers, who has missed 19 games the last two years and racked up just 10.5 sacks since signing the NFL’s biggest free-agent contract in 2019. With a $23.2 million cap hit next season -- second only to Goff on the team -- well, you can see why his future is in some doubt. The Lions could save $10.3 million by moving on. Or perhaps they could ask him to take a pay cut, and return next season to compete for a spot with Romeo Okwara, Julian Okwara and whatever they add at the top of the draft.

“Again, we’ll just keep the dialogue open and honest and we’ll go from there,” Holmes said.

Pleasant buzz continuing to grow

If you follow the Lions, Aubrey Pleasant is probably a name you know by now. He’s the defensive backs coach for Detroit, although at this rate, you really have to wonder for how much longer.

Pleasant developed a reputation as a players’ coach who made guys better during his days with the Rams, and that includes elite guys like Jalen Ramsey. Then Brad Holmes left L.A. for Detroit last year, and was able to help Dan Campbell recruit Pleasant to Detroit. Now Pleasant’s name is starting to pop up as a popular choice for future defensive coordinator. He interviewed for that position with Los Angeles and Minnesota.

“I think he’s going to be a future head coach in this league,” said Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, who spent time with Pleasant in L.A. “I think the next step in the process for him is coordinating a defense. Aubrey is so impressive to me, he’s always been. I’ve known him for a few years, even dating back to before we were together in LA. I know (Sean) McVay has a ton of respect for him. Their relationship is really strong.”

You know who else is getting a lot of respect? Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who was singled out by Peter King as the best minority head coaching candidate in the whole league. Glenn interviewed for the Denver and New Orleans jobs this year.

“When I asked around about Black coach candidates to a few NFL GMs, I heard only one name out of three mouths: Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn,” King wrote. “A Bill Parcells disciple, Glenn, 49, is a former 15-year NFL corner with 41 career interceptions. He’s a steely, bright guy who players (I’m told) love playing for.

“Glenn interviewed for the Saints’ head-coaching job, and GM Mickey Loomis told me he had a great one. The problem there was Dennis Allen, who’d been on the New Orleans staff since 2015 and has choreographed one of the best defenses in the league. Someone was going to overwhelm the Saints to knock out Allen. Glenn came close. ‘Aaron will be a head coach in our league,’ Loomis told me.”

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