Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Football Week 3 Stock Watch article.
One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of fantasy. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions, and we are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward. We are especially vulnerable in the first few weeks since we have had no game action for eight months.
We tend to evaluate each week's fantasy performances thinking about the short term; what does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.
Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 3? Who saw it fall due to their own performance or lack of usage? Let’s dive in and find out.
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If dynasty managers moved to the edge of their seats when Garrett Wilson posted eight targets, four catches, and 52 yards in his NFL debut in Week 1, they are altogether jumping up and down after his Week 2 monstrous performance. With Joe Flacco under center, Wilson posted eight catches on a massive 14 targets with 102 receiving yards and two touchdowns. If ever a top-ten overall pick were to choose how to have a breakout NFL game, this would be it.
Not only did Wilson rank second in the NFL with those 14 targets, he also ranked fourth in air yards and ninth in converted air yards. These also weren't short little dump-offs from Flacco. This was the second game in a row where his yards per reception was above 12.75 and he saw 7.29 yards per target on Sunday.
We already know that the rookie Wilson thinks Joe Flacco is a bit of an upgrade over incumbent Zach Wilson, so the real question becomes what happens when the franchise quarterback returns. The key for Garrett Wilson in these four weeks where he is guaranteed to be with Flacco is to beat out Corey Davis. To earn a spot when the team runs just two wide receivers is paramount, and so far Wilson is significantly outplaying Davis.
The Jets are also passing at a 75% rate this year, compared to 63% in 2021. That high of a rate is unsustainable throughout a full season, but at least they are making an effort to put the ball through the air more. Wilson has been the biggest beneficiary, and is making a case that he should not ever leave the field.
In the early offseason, we listed Eno Benjamin as a dynasty player to stash. He was one who could likely be had on the cheap as the Arizona Cardinals sorted out their offseason running back musical chairs. They did end up bringing back James Conner, but Benjamin has certainly been able to carve out a role. Now that Conner is coming out of Week 2 banged up, the time for Benjamin to shine may be sooner than we all thought.
In Week 2, the Arizona St. product was able to rush eight times for 31 yards, plus catch three of his four targets for another 20 yards. Those numbers won't win you a fantasy week, but the usage is encouraging. Benjamin was in on 37 total snaps to Darrel Williams' 40. They essentially split the work without Conner around with Benjamin getting the majority of the early down and two-minute drill work.
Conner's injury doesn't seem to be too serious, but it likely forces the Cardinals to consider if they want to subject him to another 250 touches like in 2021. If the workload starts to split, look for Benjamin to pick up a large piece of it.
After Justin Fields ran in a three-yard touchdown just seven minutes into Sunday Night Football, fantasy managers thought we were off to the races again. After all, Fields was coming off a three-touchdown performance against San Francisco in a downpour the week before and then he gets the early lead on the Green Bay Packers.
But then the wheels completely fell off.
What happened after that score was the kind of stuff grandpas will pass down to their grandkids generations from now. "I was watching the night that the Bears were down by three scores, but had so little faith in Justin Fields that they let him throw only 11 times in the game..."
Despite falling into a 24-7 hole in the second quarter, the Bears thought running 27 times compared to 11 pass attempts would be a wise course of action. But maybe they had the right idea. According to Player Profiler, Fields ranks 32nd in accuracy rating, 32nd in true completion percentage and 33rd in clean pocket completion percentage.
It has been so bad, he has now rendered Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney useless in fantasy football to this point. Perhaps he can turn it around at some point, but with the Bears content to rely on the running game and Chicago ranking 27th in pace of play, the signs do not look good.
Between Week 1 and Week 2, the running back script flipped for the Miami Dolphins and it was a curious turn of events considering the nature of the game against the Baltimore Ravens. Even though Miami found themselves down big early, and had to mount a furious comeback, Edmonds found himself with only five rush attempts and three targets (catching just one).
Raheem Mostert grabbed 11 rush attempts and had two of his own targets, muddying the waters about who actually owns the lion's share of this backfield work.
Granted, this could be a situation where literally every target started going to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill because Miami was down by so much. They could have thought the only way to catch up was large chunk plays, leaving Edmonds out of the equation.
But Edmonds losing early-down work and then not having ANY role in the passing game part of the comeback is worrisome. The brand new Dolphins' running back started to look like a steal towards the end of draft season in the sixth or seventh round, but now we have to wonder about two things.
First, is this more of a split backfield, with Edmonds just a small piece? And second, Miami is passing at the fourth-highest rate in the league through two games. Was that just a nature of the comeback or a sign of things to come?
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Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. In my week I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long content, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. Astros apologist. Team Terry #McSoarin
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